The operating question

Choose the source that answers the question before choosing a number that supports the story.

NSDUH: the population perspective.

SAMHSA’s National Survey on Drug Use and Health estimates substance use, mental health conditions, and treatment receipt among the U.S. civilian, noninstitutionalized population aged 12 and older. The 2025 release includes national estimates and selected comparisons over time. SAMHSA: 2025 NSDUH release.

HQ’s interpretation: this is useful context for understanding the wider need for care. It is not a count of people who are ready, eligible, geographically able, or willing to enter a particular residential program. Translating national prevalence directly into an addressable local admissions forecast skips the most important questions.

N-SUMHSS: the facility perspective.

The National Substance Use and Mental Health Services Survey describes treatment facilities, their characteristics, and services. It is voluntary, is not adjusted for facility nonresponse, and reports client counts as a point-in-time picture rather than annual totals. SAMHSA: N-SUMHSS data and limitations.

HQ’s interpretation: facility information can help establish the provider landscape and frame local research. A total of facilities does not establish the number of close competitors. Level of care, geography, program focus, and the people a provider can serve still need to be examined. A survey listing also needs current verification before it becomes a business decision.

TEDS: the treatment-episode perspective.

The Treatment Episode Data Set records admissions and discharges reported through state administrative systems. These are event records, not a count of unique people. Reporting coverage varies; some states collect publicly funded admissions, while others also collect certain privately funded admissions. SAMHSA: About TEDS.

HQ’s interpretation: TEDS can help frame questions about the treatment activity represented in the reporting system. It should not be presented as a complete census of the commercial-insurance residential market or treated as directly interchangeable with a population survey.

Build the market view in layers.

Start with the decision. An owner considering positioning needs a different evidence set from an owner reviewing inquiry handling. Use national information for context, state or local evidence where appropriate, a verified comparison set for competitive questions, and the center’s own records for operating decisions.

  • Record the collection year separately from the release date.
  • Keep the unit explicit: people, facilities, admissions, discharges, or days of care.
  • Read the coverage and methodology notes before comparing totals.
  • Label inference and missing information instead of hiding them inside a score.

This discipline makes an assessment more useful. It allows a leadership team to see what is known, what is still a hypothesis, and which next piece of evidence could change the recommendation.

Put the thinking to work.

How Surface becomes an informed Playbook